by Olivia L’Ecuyer/Farming Tool Magazine

‘Beef, it’s what’s for dinner,’ is a common saying that many rural living individuals might say or hear a few times a year. This saying is becoming more and more true as the markets for beef cattle continue to rise and make a solid profit for many farmers and ranchers. As the beef cattle market continues to rise, there are more and more concerns from many farmers and ranchers on how the cattle market will be for the rest of 2025 and continuing into 2026.
The first six months of 2025 have been marked by higher cattle and beef prices which has been driven by high cattle inventories and supply restraints. In Nebraska, feeder steer prices continue to set record highs and in April prices hit nearly $400/cwt which was nearly $150/cwt higher than that same time last year. In Kansas, fed cattle traded at US$237, steady to $2 higher, while Nebraska saw dressed trade up to $5 stronger. Wholesale beef values also surged, with the choice cutout climbing nearly $15 to $393.80. Packers are running on negative margins, trimming kills and tightening supply, while demand remains absolutely amazing.
So what is driving the prices to go up in the cattle market? That would be due to the U.S. cattle numbers that have declined over the past few years. In 2024, Nebraska’s calf crop was down 18 percent from 2018, which was the most recent high and the smallest in at least 35 years. In 2025, Kansas ranked third nationally with 5.95 million cattle on ranches and feedyards as of January 1, 2025 and in 2023 cattle and calves represented 58 percent of Kansas’s agricultural cash receipts. The prices over the first seven months of 2025 have increased tremendously compared to a year ago for all classes of cattle. Because prices have continued to increase for all sectors, profits will generally be seen by cow-calf producers, stocker-yearling operators and cattle feeders. In previous years, they have begun moving towards increasing calf supplies through retaining heifers for breeding. With the current, widespread rain,, it seems likely that cow herd building through the retaining of heifers will soon be underway; if it is not already.
An article by Aaron Berger, a Nebraska Extension agent and livestock educator shares some of his knowledge about price risk management and how farmers and ranchers are reacting to this change.
“When prices are at profitable levels, have been going up and are going higher, there is usually the temptation to do nothing from a price risk management standpoint,” Berger said. “Frequently folks who spend money on price protection or forward contracted cattle, just to see the price go roaring higher, find themselves questioning if using price protection is prudent when they are feeling the recent disappointment of having left ‘money on the table.’”
This is usually where taking the time to pause and look back at what has occurred with high prices in the past can bring perspective. In previous times, periods of exceptional profitability, those seasons have been followed by times of significant price decline. How soon and how far prices will fall is unknown. However, cattle are still a commodity, and the prices paid for a commodity, over time historically, have generally moved towards breakeven.
So how will the cattle market look for the rest of 2025 and going into 2026? Based on a report from the USDA economic research website, the mid-year Cattle report, a further tightening is expected of calves available for placement in late 2025 and early 2026. The report also suggests steady but gradual changes to inventories of beef cows and replacement heifers. Due to this, 2025 and 2026 beef production forecasts are reduced from last month. Cattle prices are estimated to rise significantly in both the second half of 2025 and in 2026 on recent cattle price reports, strong beef prices, and tighter cattle supplies. Beef imports for 2025 and 2026 have also been revised considerably downward as limited imports from Brazil are expected.
The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised on recent trade data and continued strong demand from key export markets. The beef import forecast is also raised on strong imports from Oceania and South America, as well as robust domestic demand for lean processing beef. Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised on recent price strength and continued demand for cattle. The increased price forecasts are carried over into 2026 as well.
Stephen Koontz, researcher at Colorado State University, reports his estimates for cattle in late 2025 and going into 2026.
“For 500- to 600-lb. calves, first-quarter projections are $310 to $315/cwt., second quarter $325 to $340, third quarter $310 to $315 and fourth quarter $300 to $310. First-quarter calf price to average $300/cwt. For the second quarter, the forecast is a $305 average price, third quarter $300 and fourth quarter $300,” Koontz said. “If we were to start to see rapid herd rebuilding, then prices would increase even more due to the lack of heifers on the market. Fewer calves for sale boosts prices for 2025. It’s likely that we need higher prices to get ranchers to increase herds. First-quarter projections for 700- to 800-lb. prices average $250/cwt. For the second quarter, the estimates are $260 average price, third quarter $270 and fourth quarter $270.”
Koontz forecasts first-quarter, fed cattle prices to range between $187.50 and $190/cwt, second-quarter prices from $190 to $200, with third quarter from $190 to $195, and fourth quarter at $195 to $200.
“Again, tight supplies will remain. We will make up for lost numbers with much heavier weights,” he says. “I also think we’ll continue to see corn prices pressured – and this leads to heavier weights and more future pressure on the topside.” Koontz also sees strong cull cow prices, as consumers spend more of their beef dollars on ground beef. Prices will vary, depending on the number of cattle imported for hamburger. Forecasts for the first-quarter, cull cow prices at $85 to $115/cwt., with the second-quarter prices from $115 to $130. His third-quarter projections are from $110 to $130 and fourth quarter at $100 to $120.
With the cattle markets increasing and being predicted to stay at a somewhat steady pace, it looks like farmers and ranchers will be able to earn a solid profit for the rest of 2025 and into 2026.