Groundwater Levels Decline In Eastern Nebraska

The past several years of drought conditions in Nebraska have resulted in a decline in groundwater levels in the eastern half of the state. That is according to the annual Nebraska Statewide Groundwater-Level Report from the Conservation and Survey Division in the University of Nebraska–Lincoln’s School of Natural Resources.
Statewide, groundwater levels declined on average 0.52 feet in spring 2024, even though precipitation was above average in the western half of the Cornhusker State.
Cause of Declining Water Levels
According to the UNL report, despite the declines, Nebraska has significantly more groundwater than the other states atop the High Plains aquifer system, “Variations in groundwater levels and precipitation are intimately linked. Precipitation is the main source of aquifer replenishment in Nebraska, partially replacing water removed from the ground for irrigation and domestic use. Hotter and drier growing seasons result in a greater need for irrigation while providing less water for recharge. Both effects can cause a decline in groundwater levels. However, years with above-average precipitation provide more water for groundwater recharge and typically less pumping for irrigation. These effects generally cause a rise in groundwater levels.”
UNL Report
Almost 5,000 wells were measured in the spring of 2023 and spring of 2024 to monitor changes in groundwater levels in Nebraska. Sixty-one percent of the wells recorded a groundwater-level decline in spring 2024. The largest declines, exceeding 10 feet, occurred in the eastern half of Nebraska, where precipitation was generally below average during the same period. Much of Nebraska experienced some level of drought for most of the preceding five years. However, easing drought conditions during the 2023 growing season in western Nebraska drove local rises in groundwater levels.
Nebraska has more than 99,000 active irrigation wells, providing water to support the agricultural economy. Pumping water from aquifers through a vast number of wells can be detrimental to the long-term sustainability of water resources. However, the report states, “Nebraska has a nation-leading system of groundwater management in its 23 Natural Resources Districts. The districts regulate groundwater with comprehensive regional management plans that undergo periodic updates. Still, recent and long-term groundwater-level declines in some parts of the state are concerning. Some wells in these areas may eventually go dry or need to be drilled deeper.”
Little Blue NRD Issues Stay On New Wells
The Little Blue Natural Resources District (NRD) Board of Directors has imposed an immediate stay, beginning May 13, 2025, on the construction of all high-capacity irrigation wells and expansion of irrigated acres in Hydrogeologic Area 2. Such a stay shall remain in effect indefinitely unless specific action of the Board dictates otherwise. Inactive wells, or wells that have no associated certified acres, may not be brought back into service. However, a variance can be requested to have an inactive well be considered as a replacement well.
Exemptions for replacement wells include wells that pertain to human health, safety and welfare, or range livestock, or injection wells, including heat pump installations and groundwater remediation systems.
Irrigation projects for which the owner/operator have substantially completed may be allowed to be completed. Notification and documentation of substantial completion are required as proof of such completion.
During the time that a stay is in place, if the water source for certified irrigated acres is lost due to landownership changes, disputes, or other reasons, and no new acres will be irrigated, the affected landowner may apply for a permit to construct a well to serve the formerly certified acres, with no increase in acres.
The full text of the Groundwater Rules and Regulations, along with a map of the stay area, can be found on the LBNRD website at littlebluenrd.org and at the Little Blue NRD office at 100 East 6th Street in Davenport.

Eric Hunt on Summer Weather/Precipitation

By Olivia L’Ecuyer
One of the most notable aspects about Nebraska is our weather. It can be 35 degrees one day and the next it’ll be a high of 75 with a 97 percent chance of rain. With weather that can change at the drop of a pen, it’s essential that we watch the weather and know what to expect for the rest of the season.
From March 1 to May 31 the country was pretty warm. The majority of the country was also receiving a little more than the average for precipitation during this time period; however, our region was still below normal in the bottom thirty three percent. Eric Hunt an agricultural meteorologist at UNL elaborates on some of the concerns he has over the precipitation and weather conditions in southeast Nebraska.
“The land right along highway 136 has generally been below average so far this spring,” Hunt said. “This is an area that we might need to pay more attention to as we get deeper into the summer.”
From April 10 to June 8 we have had six to eight inches of precipitation throughout our region. This has made an impact on some ratings for crops this spring.
“It is very, very wet here across some portions of the Dakotahs,” Hunt said. “I do think some of the rating issues on spring wheat probably is related to how excessively wet that area was earlier in the spring that may be causing some development delays.”
Here in Nebraska we have had our own poor ratings on winter wheat.
“I think that the southwestern corner/central portion of the state is the culprit for the reason these ratings are so poor,” Hunt said. “It could also partially be from how dry and hot we were last fall so the crops ended up getting a bad jump start and then the earlier part of spring was not particularly helpful. The recent precipitation is going to be helpful, but it’s probably also going to be a little late for a really robust crop.”
Farmers have also been dealing with wheat streak mosaic virus across the state of Nebraska and that is due to the hail that we received last year. Due to the hail that happened right around harvest time it shattered the tillers which could end up at volunteer wheat that could be infected with wheat streak which could potentially affect your entire field.
In the last few weeks Nebraska has been under the average normal temperature for this time.
“Across portions of the central plains we have been running almost six degrees below average and around five degrees here across the corn belt,” said Hunt. “Looking at the Evaportative Demand Drought Index, which is a proxy for potential evapotranspiration, most of the northern plains have really been below the average on potential evapotranspiration.
In about a month we have seen dramatic improvements to the soil moisture in southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Originally the region was ten to fifteen centimeters but it has improved to twenty to thirty centimeters. This may help improve some pasture conditions in the area while giving corn and sorghum crops a chance at having a decent season by the improvement of soil moisture that we have seen.
“So we still have roughly around eighty-five percent of the state of Nebraska in drought,” Hunt said. In the last eight weeks there has been little to no change for southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas through the US drought monitor. “In Kansas we have quite a few areas that have improved their pasture moisture from the previous year.”
“Speaking of moisture we do have a pretty good chance for precipitation in the Corn Belt region, and I think in the next few weeks we should get some pretty good precipitation,” Hunt said. The southern portion of Nebraska should be able to pick up about an inch or two in the next few weeks.
In the next few weeks, June 21 to July 4, Nebraska and the northern portion of Kansas are going to have an above average of warmer temperatures. There also might be some precipitation from Texas that moves up into the midwest but could shift over towards Iowa and Illinois.
“I think we’re going to have a pretty good chance of moisture across a lot of the western Corn Belt as well as the eastern portion,” Hunt said.
Currently we are in neutral conditions on the ESNO graph which is favorable. It is looking like the midwest will stay in neutral conditions but there is a chance that we could develop into El Nino during the later portion of 2025.
It is predicted that due to temperatures above ninety-five before May, our temperatures are looking to be above normal for the majority of July. This is a high probability as the US Seasonal Drought Outlook since Nebraska and Kansas are predicted to have drought persist throughout the summer.
The Seasonal Precipitation Outlook reports that the northern and central plains are expected to have below normal precipitation from July until August/September. On the Seasonal Temperature Outlook it is suggested that we will have slightly above average temperatures, but due to drought conditions and lack of precipitation that is likely to change.
On the NOAA/NCEI Climate Division Composite Precipitation Anomalies it is looking like July is going to be pretty dry, but August should have good chances of precipitation. 2021 was the last year that the midwest actually had decent widespread precipitation but we might have pretty good widespread precipitation in 2025. This is likely to happen but it might not so farmers and ranchers need to be prepared when it comes to precipitation levels this summer/fall. Right now ridge placement is key with MJO getting into phases 6 and 7 in late July would favor western displacement and allow for a potentially favorable August in the CPG/Corn Belt. With drought a high likelihood Nebraska crops and pastures are likely to struggle in July, but August should bring better chances at precipitation.
While Nebraska isn’t going to be hit with a ton of precipitation, it is looking like these next few months might be a little better than the last three to four years.

2025 The Year of a “Big Drought” for the Midwest

The word is spreading like the wildfire that many farmers hope to avoid. The conditions for the year of 2025 are looking to be a problem. Enough of a problem, that the ongoing drought could manage to get even worse as it’s been labeled as a “Big Drought” year.
The theory behind 2025 as a big drought year for the Midwest is built off a sun cycle known as the “Gleissberg Cycle”. This is a grouping of 11 year solar cycles, roughly 2-3 relatively strong cycles will be preceded and followed by 2-3 relatively weak ones. Cycles can be as short as 66 years but on-average are 100 years long. Historical cycles determined by studying carbon in tree ring data. The last three cycles are: 1700-1810, 1810-1910, and 1910-2010. At the current time, we are currently about 15 years into a Gleissberg Cycle now.
The reason that this matters is the periods of increased solar activity and radiation could lead to more evaporation. During years with little precipitation, this can worsen drought conditions, but it isn’t a “sole” cause of drought. Regardless if we’re looking at an 89 year or 100 year cycle, there is no clear pattern of drought based on solar cycles. A a bit more impactful to drought conditions are shorter-term patterns, and one of the most well known is the El Nino/La Nina pattern as we currently are experiencing a La Nina pattern.
There are a couple problems with directly comparing future drought to that of previous years, comparing historical drought between two years is a match, not an indication of a pattern. When we widen the view, we find that there is no clear pattern of drought based on a solar cycle (89 or 100 years in length) and historic drought data (based on tree rings) is imperfect before modern, standard measurements we see today. It is much more accurate to look at shorter time-scale weather patterns such as the La Nina/El Nino patterns. For farmers in the Midwest, this will mean continuing dry conditions had our pockets of extreme and exceptional drought every year since 2021, falling in the late summer and continuing through the fall, before winter precipitation takes us headed into the spring. With long-range forecasts in mind of average to below precipitation and average temperatures, drought conditions will continue where we experience them currently and potentially worsen in the regions already experiencing the worst of the drought.
The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) out of Boise, Idaho, released a report on Friday, Feb. 28, stating there have been a total of 5,425 wildfires so far in 2025 that have burned 108,535 acres in the United States. This amount is above the 10-year average of wildfires, which sits at 4,526. Drought, warmer temperatures, and high winds are some of the weather factors that have led to thousands of wildfires already, and the wildfire outlook for this spring is concerning, especially across the Great Plains.
In late February 2025, the Nebraska Forest Service (NFS) played a pivotal role in combating the Custer County Complex Fire, a series of wildfires that scorched approximately 6,000 acres near Broken Bow, Nebraska. The complex encompassed three primary fires: the Eureka Valley Fire, the Lillian Fire, and the East Table Road Fire. The largest active wildfire in the U.S., as of Feb. 28, is the Dismal River Ranch Fire in the Sandhills of Nebraska, which burned 50,000 acres and is 85% contained. Nebraska’s governor also declared a state of emergency on Feb. 27 due to additional wildfires in Custer and Dawes Counties in central and western Nebraska. Northwest wind gusts near 30-40 mph, low relative humidity near 20% to 30%, and dry vegetation are to blame for the high wildfire risk in Nebraska on Friday.
Extra precautions will be needed throughout the Great Plains this spring to help reduce the risk of wildfires as the temperature and precipitation outlooks look favorable for additional wildfires to develop. When larger systems approach the region with higher winds, the wildfire risk will be especially elevated.
Taking a moment to speak on the wildfires was Public Information Officer Benjamin Bohall. Setting up the interview with Bohall, easy as could be, but unfortunately wildfires kept that conversation away for sometime. What’s happened in Custer County serves as a lesson, and a lesson Bohall hopes serves as a reminder of the challenges ahead, “It’s something to look back on past years and see similarities. The year 2012 was the worst year of wildfires in the history of Nebraska we had on record and 2022 was the second worst. To give you some insight and perspective, with Nebraska, fire season lasted from June until late September. Now were seeing what we had seen two weeks, maybe a week ago with fires beginning as early as February. We’re starting to see, basically what we consider fire years instead of fire seasons.”
Bohall continued, “You know in 2022, I think it was roughly over 250,000 acres that were burned. To gauge that, in Nebraska, anything over 100,000 acres is considered a bad fires season and we’ve continually hit that for the last three to four years. Going back to 2012, it use to be in Nebraska, we would have a bad fire season every 5 to 10 years. Before 2012, the last bad season Nebraska had was in 2006. That difference of the six from 2006 to 2012. We look at where we were in 2021 and what’s been happening in the following years. Easy to say that it’s definitely changed our capacity on how we approached dealing with wildfires now.”
Speaking on the changes of the environment, and the precautions needed to be taken for the year ahead. It’s not a matter of farmers and firefighters not knowing what’s in store, it’s recognizing how easy these wildfires can start, “It use to be that fires in Nebraska use to be a western problem, but now has become all of Nebraska. The eastern part of the State has been in perpetual drought for sometime. We’re not getting the moisture we need, whether it’s rain or snow, it hasn’t been enough. We had a couple years ago very dry conditions, then we got hit with a good portion of rain for a couple weeks. So much so that the vegetation kept growing back at a good rate, when it was cut again, a few days later when the dryness picked back up where it left off. It just created more fuel for that year. That’s from a weather perspective and the other factor which might be the most important is the human factor to wildfires.”
Bohall explained, “About 90% of wildfires in Nebraska are human caused which is 10% above the national average. That is an example, much like what we saw of the Custer County complex fire. Which happened due to debris burns. Debris burns and pile burns, those are the number one culprits to wildfires in our State. It’s not like these are being caused by people with burn permits. Several of the 40 wildfires that were across Nebraska, several were from those with burn permits. Unfortunately a lot of times they thought those burns were out, but those embers are tough and a good high wind can start that right back up, it doesn’t take much when the conditions are as they are right now. I know I brought up debris burns, but here’s something small to think about. In other situations, it’s things like an tire being a bit low, maybe hits a rock and that one spark is enough to catch flame. Even parking in tall enough grass has reason to be mindful of the environment and certain notices going on in someone’s area. One thing we’ve really learned about these past few years is how little it takes for one spark to set off a wildfire. We must be sure to do our due diligence with the current conditions we’ll be facing.”